Ajit Doval to Meet Russian Officials in Moscow Amid U.S. Tariff Hike Over India-Russia Oil Trade

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar are set to visit Russia this month for high-level meetings focused on bolstering defence, economic, and energy cooperation.

These engagements occur amid growing pressure from the US and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Doval Arrives in Moscow Amid Tariff Pressures

Doval departed for Moscow on Wednesday, with meetings scheduled for Thursday with senior Russian officials. While not officially confirmed, analysts suggested a possible meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

The discussions are expected to address India’s purchases of Russian oil, a key energy supplier, and a clear target of newly imposed US tariffs.

“The current escalation of the geopolitical situation will also be discussed,” TASS reported, highlighting how pressing issues such as oil supply to India will dominate Doval’s agenda.

Defence and Strategic Issues Take Centre Stage

India and Russia are expected to push forward on strategic defence agreements. Topics likely include the delivery timelines for the remaining S-400 air defence systems, discussions on Su-57 fighter jets, and setting up maintenance facilities for the S-400s within India.

These systems were pivotal during recent military engagements and stand as key pillars of bilateral defence cooperation.

The talks also anticipate discussion of Russia’s recognition of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and other regional security challenges.

Trump’s Tariffs Escalate Diplomatic Pressure

These visits gain added urgency as President Trump threatens to raise tariffs further—potentially up to 50%—as retaliation against India’s ongoing purchases of discounted Russian crude.

Indian officials condemned the move as “unjustified and unreasonable,” pointing to continued Western trade with Russia in LNG and uranium.

Reports suggest that India could face heavy blows: a Reuters analysis estimated a potential hit to $64 billion in exports to the US due to combined tariffs, although the RBI projects minimal growth impact due to the small share of exports in overall GDP.

Jaishankar to Lead Trade and Economic Dialogue

Following Doval’s mission, EAM Jaishankar will visit Russia in the third week of August for the India‑Russia Inter‑Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC‑TEC).

This body, instrumental in steering India‑Russia trade and economic relations, last met in New Delhi in November 2024.

With trade and economic issues at the forefront, discussions are expected to focus on energy security, tariff threats, Arctic cooperation, and a roadmap for future collaboration.

Putin Poised to Visit India

The visits by Doval and Jaishankar are seen as preparatory to Russian President Putin’s planned visit to India by the end of August—a development Indian sources confirmed via Interfax.

This would be a significant milestone in India‑Russia diplomacy and a reaffirmation of strategic partnership amid global realignments.

India Asserts Strategic Autonomy

Amid US pressure, India’s shifting posture underscores its intent to maintain strategic autonomy. MEA officials and diplomatic commentary emphasized that bilateral ties—especially with Russia—are based on India’s own interests and must not be influenced by external pressure.

This steadfast engagement signals India’s prioritization of energy, defence, and trade security.

Strengthening Longstanding Ties

Beyond immediate geopolitical flashpoints, India and Russia have a long-standing institution-driven engagement through commissions like IRIGC‑TEC and IRIGC‑MMTC.

These have fostered cooperation in defence manufacturing, nuclear energy, and joint projects including AK‑203 rifles and BrahMos missiles.

India’s sustained oil imports from Russia—from less than 1% pre-Ukraine to nearly 40%—have shaped energy security strategies, even as Western partners voiced disapproval.