Delhi Exit Polls 2025: BJP Poised for Victory, AAP Faces Uncertain Outcome

The results of the Delhi Assembly elections 2025 will be declared on Saturday, but exit polls continue to pour in ahead of the announcement.

Most polls suggest a sweeping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the national capital. If the projections hold true, this will mark BJP’s return to power in Delhi after 27 years, with the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) expected to move into the opposition.

Axis My India predicts that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party will secure between 45 and 55 out of Delhi’s 70 seats, leaving Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP with 15 to 25 seats.

CNX has an even more optimistic forecast for BJP, estimating its win between 49 and 61 seats, while AAP may be limited to 10 to 19 seats.

Today’s Chanakya predicts 51 seats for BJP against AAP’s 19. Matrize offers a range of 35-40 seats for BJP and 32-37 for AAP.

Diverging Predictions Among Pollsters

While some exit polls provide a narrower margin between BJP and AAP, others suggest a landslide victory. P-Marq offers AAP some hope, projecting 39-44 seats for the party while giving BJP 21-31 seats.

People’s Pulse predicts BJP will secure between 51 and 60 seats, leaving AAP with 10-18 seats. People’s Insight provides a more moderate estimate, with BJP at 40-44 seats and AAP at 25-28 seats.

Poll Diary predicts 42-50 seats for BJP, whereas JVC projects 39-45 seats. For AAP, Poll Diary places the range at 18-25 seats, while JVC estimates 22-31 seats.

Congress Fails to Make an Impact

A consistent trend across all exit polls is the bleak outlook for the Congress party. Most surveys predict Congress will once again fail to win any seats, marking a third consecutive electoral failure in Delhi.

Today’s Chanakya has forecast an emphatic victory for BJP, predicting 45-57 seats with a 49% vote share. AAP, in contrast, is expected to secure between 13-25 seats.

A party requires at least 36 seats to form a government in Delhi, making BJP the dominant contender based on exit poll projections.

AAP Challenges Exit Polls, Cites Past Trends

Although most polls indicate a BJP win, AAP remains skeptical. The party argues that exit polls have consistently underestimated their performance in previous elections.

“Exit polls have never been right about the AAP. Every time, AAP has stormed to power with a massive mandate, and this time will be no different,” AAP spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar said. In 2020, AAP won 62 out of 70 seats, leaving BJP with only eight.

A loss for AAP would mark a significant setback for both the party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal.

Since its formation in 2012, AAP has positioned itself as a party advocating for the common man, emphasizing improvements in education, healthcare, water, and electricity services.

BJP Eyes Major Political Comeback

If the projections hold true, BJP’s victory would not only end AAP’s decade-long rule in Delhi but also signal a major political shift. A composite “poll of polls” places BJP at 43 seats, with AAP trailing at 26. Congress is projected to win just one seat.

This anticipated win would provide a boost to BJP after a lukewarm performance in the 2024 general elections, where it fell short of a majority and had to form a coalition government.

However, BJP has since regained momentum, securing victories in Maharashtra and Haryana. A win in Delhi would further cement its resurgence.

Election Campaigns and Key Issues

During the campaign, all three major parties sought to attract voters with promises of various benefits, including free water, electricity, and cash incentives.

AAP’s governance model has focused on public welfare schemes that gained widespread support, but the party has been embroiled in controversies that may have impacted its image.

Corruption Allegations Impacting AAP

Kejriwal’s second term has been overshadowed by corruption allegations. The arrest of Kejriwal and two of his key ministers in connection to an alleged liquor scam led to major setbacks for the party.

Authorities accused AAP leaders of accepting bribes in a now-defunct excise policy, which allegedly funneled illicit funds into the party’s coffers.

AAP has denied these allegations, labeling them a political vendetta orchestrated by BJP.

However, the scandal, combined with the controversy surrounding the construction of Kejriwal’s lavish official residence, dubbed the Sheeshmahal (Palace of Mirrors), may have eroded voter confidence.

Awaiting the Final Verdict

With the official results set to be announced on Saturday, all eyes are on whether the exit poll projections will hold true. A BJP victory would mark a historic return to power in Delhi, while an AAP upset would challenge polling trends once again.

Whatever the outcome, the results of the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections will shape the political landscape of the capital and beyond.