Manipur BJP Struggles to Pick New CM as President’s Rule Looms

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Manipur is facing a leadership crisis following the resignation of caretaker Chief Minister N Biren Singh.

The urgency to find his replacement grows as the deadline for convening the state assembly approaches.

On Tuesday, BJP legislators held multiple meetings with North-East coordinator Sambit Patra, yet failed to reach a consensus on Singh’s successor.

Around 4:45 PM, Patra, along with BJP Manipur Chief Sharda Devi and three lawmakers, met Governor Ajay Bhalla at the Raj Bhavan in Imphal, but no official statement was released.

Constitutional Deadline and Possible President’s Rule

The situation is further complicated by Article 174 (1) of the Constitution, which mandates that the assembly must reconvene within six months of its last session, held on August 12, 2024.

With the February 12, 2025 deadline looming, the possibility of President’s Rule increases in a state already reeling from nearly two years of violence.

BJP leaders indicated that contenders for the chief minister’s post struggled to secure backing from Singh’s loyalists.

A senior BJP leader acknowledged that President’s Rule was likely. “We heard that most likely the assembly will be put under President’s Rule with the assembly in suspended animation,” the leader said, explaining that this would keep the assembly technically intact, allowing for a possible future majority government.

Opposition’s Stand and Legal Interpretations

Congress leader and constitutional expert Abhishek Manu Singhvi stated that President’s Rule was inevitable due to BJP’s internal divisions and the delayed resignation of Singh.

“Constitutionally, legally, and politically, it seems inevitable,” he remarked. However, former Lok Sabha Secretary General PDT Achary argued that the six-month rule did not apply in this case since the chief minister’s resignation left the state without a government.

Achary explained that the governor had two options: identify a leader with majority support or recommend President’s Rule under Article 356.

Biren Singh’s Resignation and Political Repercussions

Biren Singh resigned on February 9, just before the state assembly’s scheduled budget session. His resignation followed a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah amid internal party discord and threats of a no-confidence motion.

Singh’s departure came five days after the Supreme Court ordered a forensic analysis of leaked audio tapes allegedly featuring him discussing the state’s ethnic violence.

Since then, BJP has conducted several meetings to stabilize the state, which has been embroiled in violence since May 2023. Over 250 people have died in clashes between the Meitei and Kuki communities.

The Opposition and Kuki groups blame Singh for escalating the conflict.

BJP’s Ongoing Leadership Discussions

On Tuesday, Patra continued deliberations with potential CM candidates, including Speaker T Satyabrata Singh, Education Minister Y Khemchand, Th Biswajit, former Minister Th Radheshyam, and Minister Awangboi Newmai.

A BJP functionary from Manipur mentioned that efforts were being made to garner support from 10 rebel Kuki-Zo tribal legislators.

One such legislator confirmed being contacted for a meeting in Delhi but cited safety concerns in traveling from Imphal to Aizawl.

Reports Indicating President’s Rule

A News18 report cited a government official claiming that Manipur would be placed under President’s Rule due to BJP’s failure to select a new CM.

Singh’s resignation occurred amid speculation that BJP MLAs might support the Congress-led no-confidence motion.

On Tuesday, BJP leaders, including Patra and state party chief Sharda Devi, met Governor Bhalla at the Raj Bhavan to discuss the leadership crisis.

The meeting lasted approximately 30 minutes but yielded no conclusive decision.

Understanding President’s Rule

President’s Rule, also called Central Rule, is imposed when a state government fails to function as per constitutional norms.

Under Article 356, the state’s governance is transferred to the Centre, and the state legislature’s functions are taken over by Parliament.

The governor assumes administrative control, and the Vidhan Sabha is either suspended or dissolved. However, parliamentary approval is required within two months of the proclamation.

Criteria for Imposing President’s Rule

President’s Rule is imposed when the governor reports to the Centre that the state’s governance cannot be conducted per constitutional provisions.

The president can then declare that Parliament will assume the state legislature’s powers. If Parliament is not in session, ordinances may be issued for state administration.

BJP’s Internal Crisis and Future Prospects

Singh’s resignation, despite internal resistance, aimed to preserve Manipur’s stability. However, the BJP remains divided, with several MLAs opposing his leadership.

The Centre’s intervention prevented potential embarrassment from a no-confidence vote.

With the assembly session canceled and no CM appointed, the BJP now faces the challenge of regaining stability.

The term of the Manipur assembly runs until February 2027, providing the party time to reorganize. However, given the ongoing violence and political uncertainty, forming a new government remains a daunting task.

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh criticized the delay in summoning the assembly session, questioning why Governor Bhalla had not acted per Article 174 (1). “Why is the Manipur governor violating the Constitution by not summoning the legislative assembly?” he asked.

Governor Ajay Bhalla’s Role

Governor Bhalla, former Union Home Secretary, has played a pivotal role in Manipur’s administration. Within days of his appointment, he implemented a major bureaucratic and police reshuffle, signaling imminent change.

As the Centre weighs its options, Bhalla’s experience and close ties with Home Minister Amit Shah make him a key figure in deciding the state’s future.